Regime shifts are large, abrupt, persistent changes in the structure and function of ecosystems, the climate, financial systems or other complex systems.[1][2][3][4] A regime is a characteristic behaviour of a system which is maintained by mutually reinforced processes or feedbacks. Regimes are considered persistent relative to the time period over which the shift occurs. The change of regimes, or the shift, usually occurs when a smooth change in an internal process (feedback) or a single disturbance (external shocks) triggers a completely different system behavior.[5][6][7][8] Although such non-linear changes have been widely studied in different disciplines ranging from atoms to climate dynamics,[9] regime shifts have gained importance in ecology because they can substantially affect the flow of ecosystem services that societies rely upon,[4][10] such as provision of food, clean water or climate regulation. Moreover, regime shift occurrence is expected to increase as human influence on the planet increases – the Anthropocene[11] – including current trends on human induced climate change and biodiversity loss.[12] When regime shifts are associated with a critical or bifurcation point, they may also be referred to as critical transitions.[3]
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- ^ a b Scheffer, Marten (26 July 2009). Critical transitions in nature and society. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0691122045.
- ^ a b Biggs, R., et al. (2009) Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 106, 826–831
- ^ Scheffer, M., et al. (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413, 591–596
- ^ Scheffer, M., and Carpenter, S. (2003) Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends Ecol. Evol. 18, 648–656
- ^ Folke, C., et al. (2004) Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 35, 557–581
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- ^ Feudel, U. (2008) Complex dynamics in multistable systems. Int J Bifurcat Chaos 18, 1607–1626
- ^ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: biodiversity synthesis. 87
- ^ Steffen, W., et al. (2007) The Anthropocene: Are humans now overwhelming the great forces of nature. Ambio 36, 614–621
- ^ Rockström, J., et al. (2009) A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472–475
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